For the second consecutive day, gold is trading at slight losses. The intraday decline could be due to a shift in trading strategies ahead of the release of U.S. consumer inflation data, scheduled for today. Additionally, the overall positive tone in the stock markets is seen as another factor undermining demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.
However, growing market concerns about further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are mitigating the decline in gold prices. Furthermore, expectations of a more significant reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, supported by data showing that inflation continues to decline, provide a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, the weak performance of the U.S. dollar could offer support to the XAU/USD pair.
From a technical standpoint, the recent rebound from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor the bulls. Therefore, any price declines are likely to be limited, and could be viewed as buying opportunities. Gold appears poised to retest the all-time high in the $2484 level and may aim to reach the psychological level of $2500. Sustained strength beyond this psychological level would signal a new breakout. This breakout through the broader trading range, which has held for the past month, paves the way for further short-term upside.
On the downside, the key level at $2450 now serves as critical support, below which the precious metal could drop to the weekly low in the $2422 level. The next significant support is marked around $2415, followed by the round number of $2400. Failure to defend these support levels could cause the XAU/USD pair to decline toward the 50-day SMA support near $2379. Further selling could shift the bias in favor of the bears, exposing the 100-day SMA. Below this, the late July low around $2351 comes into play, with a break below potentially opening the door to deeper losses.
