Analysis of trades and tips on EUR/USD
The price test of 1.0947 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the further upward potential of the pair—especially within the horizontal channel observed all day. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The data on the ZEW sentiment index for the Eurozone and Germany was roughly in line with economists' expectations, which did not lead to a strong surge in volatility. However, the U.S. producer price index caused a real stir, turning the markets around and strongly supporting euro buyers. They took advantage of the moment and returned to the psychological resistance level of 1.1000, which has remained elusive to breach.
Today, we expect interesting Eurozone GDP, employment, and industrial production data. Only a significant negative deviation from these indicators will prompt traders to sell the euro. Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair may sustain its rise until the crucial U.S. Consumer Price Index is released. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1003, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1031. At 1.1031, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today after good data within the framework of an upward trend. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I will also buy the euro today if the price at 1.0984 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the instrument's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1003 and 1.1031.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.0984, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be 1.0962, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if the pair fails to consolidate near the intraday high and weak Eurozone data. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I will also sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1003 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0984 and 1.0962.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
