Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1003 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro, continuing the upward trend observed yesterday. Since the Eurozone data matched economists' expectations, it ensured further growth of the euro, moving towards the target level of 1.1031. The second half of the day is expected to be much more volatile, as key US inflation figures will be released, which will essentially determine the Federal Reserve's policy for this fall. A sharp rise in inflation could lead to a drop in the pair and result in euro sales. Conversely, a decline in U.S. inflation will lead to new, more active euro purchases, continuing the upward trend. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to follow Scenario 1 without considering the MACD indicator, as I anticipate strong and directional movements.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1038 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1083. At 1.1083, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. You can expect upward movement for the euro today following news of a decline in US inflation. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1018 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect a rise to the target levels of 1.1038 and 1.1083.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I will sell the euro once the price reaches the 1.1018 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0976, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point movement from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if there is a failed attempt to rise above the daily high and if news of rising inflation in the US is released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1038 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the subsequent levels of 1.1018 and 1.0976.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – The presumed price at which you can place a Take Profit order or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – The presumed price at which you can place a Take Profit order or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider the zones of overbought and oversold conditions.
Important: Beginner Forex traders must make very careful decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
