GBP/USD
The British pound is choosing the growth option for the near future, which we gave a 60% probability to yesterday. Overcoming the level of 1.2859 is difficult, helped by the market's general attraction to risk. Today, data on retail sales in the UK for July will be released, with a forecast of 0.6%.
In the US, the volume of new housing starts for June is expected to decline by 0.9%. This divergence will also help the pound rise today. The Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the zero line, indicating a shift to the bullish side. The target for the pound's rise is the 1.2989 level – the peak from July 27, 2023.
In the 4-hour chart, the price continued its sawtooth decline yesterday, while Marlin remained in the positive area. After the price consolidates above the 1.2859 level, the market will intensify its intention to reach 1.2989. If the price consolidates below the 1.2859 level, uncertainty will continue.
