Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1038 level during the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero line, confirming the entry point for selling the euro in anticipation of a correction after the pair's strong rise during the Asian session. As a result, the downward movement was limited to about 5 points. The levels for the second half of the day have been adjusted based on the expected reaction to FOMC member Christopher Waller's speech, as the U.S. Leading Indicators Index is unlikely to have much impact. A dovish tone from Waller will further weaken the dollar's position at the beginning of the week. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price around 1.1051 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1086 level. At 1.1086, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro, as well as a significant drop, is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1025 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may cause the market to reverse upwards. An increase towards the levels of 1.1051 and 1.1086 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1025 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0998 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 points from this level. Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to rise above the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1051 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the support levels of 1.1025 and 1.0998 can be expected.
Chart Details:
- Thin Green Line – The entry price for initiating a buy position.
- Thick Green Line – The anticipated price where you can set a take profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line – The entry price for initiating a sell position.
- Thick Red Line – The anticipated price where you can set a take profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should make entry decisions very cautiously. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.
