Analysis of trades and tips on GBP/USD
The price test of 1.3129 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upwards from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. Given the pound's overbought condition, I decided to refrain from entering the market. Shortly afterward, a second test of this price provided a suitable entry point for implementing Scenario No. 2 for selling. As a result, the pair dropped nearly 20 pips. The second half of the day promises to be much more interesting. In addition to new home sales data, we expect a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Hints of a more aggressive rate cut than the market expects could lead to a decline in the dollar and a new wave of pound growth. A more conservative stance might benefit dollar buyers. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario No. 1 despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect a strong and decisive movement.
Buy signals
Scenario No 1. Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point around 1.3137, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.3196, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 1.3196, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. One can count on the pound's rise today in continuation of the upward trend, but only after Powell's speech. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3105 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3137 and 1.3196.
Sell signals
Scenario No 1. Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level of 1.3105, plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3042, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will make their move if there is no active action around the new weekly high and if the Fed maintains a strong stance. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3137 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3105 and 1.3042.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
