Analysis of Trades and Tips for the Euro
The price test of 1.1135 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. This led to a rise towards the target level of 1.1198, resulting in a profit of around 60 pips. Everything unfolded as we anticipated: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech was focused on the anticipated rate cut in September this year, which provoked euro purchases and weakened the US dollar. However, there was no new guidance on how the Fed plans to proceed, which casts doubt on continuing the bullish trend in risk assets. Today, we await IFO data on the business climate, the current situation, and economic expectations in Germany. Weak results could lead to a correction in the pair, further limiting the intraday upward potential. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.1196, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1241. At 1.1241, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It will be possible to count on the euro's growth today in the first half of the day after good data on Germany. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1178 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1196 and 1.1241.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1178, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1150, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today only after weak data and the absence of buyers near the daily high. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1196 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1178 and 1.1150.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
