Analysis of Trades and Tips for the Yen
The price test of 143.74 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's further downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell and was right. As a result, the market did not experience significant movement in either direction, and trading remained within a horizontal channel. In the second half of the day, we will have data on changes in durable goods orders in the US, which is unlikely to interest carry trade traders. It will also be of little interest to us, so I prefer to look for trades in line with the continuation of the downward trend, provided certain conditions are met. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 144.22, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 144.94, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 144.94, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Expecting growth in the pair today is only feasible with very strong US data, but this is unlikely. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 143.85 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 144.22 and 144.94.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 143.85 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 143.24, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if there is a failed attempt to rise above the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 144.22 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 143.85 and 143.24.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
