Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test of 1.3179 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound as part of the downward correction. As a result, the pair dropped more than 30 pips. US GDP data triggered a decline in the pound in the afternoon, but after a significant dip, part of the movement was quickly bought back. Today, we finally have data for the UK, mainly concerning lending. Reports on the UK's M4 money supply and mortgage approvals are unlikely to impact the market strongly, but these data and the Nationwide House Price Index must be addressed. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point at 1.3176, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to the level of 1.3204, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 1.3204, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. It is unlikely that we will see strong growth for the pound today, but a bounce upwards after a weekly dip is possible. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3156 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3176 and 1.3204.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level of 1.3156, plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3128, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). It is possible to sell the pound if buyers fail to return above 1.3176 and weak data on lending. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3176 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3156 and 1.3128.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
