Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1090 level occurred when the MACD indicator was already significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the euro. The second test of 1.1090 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought area, confirming it was an opportune moment to sell the euro, leading to a 15-point drop. In the second half of the day, the pair's behavior will depend on data related to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, changes in personal spending, and changes in personal income levels in the U.S. If inflation news or figures come in higher than expected by economists, the EUR/USD pair could drop significantly. Conversely, if the figures are lower, the euro is likely to strengthen against the dollar by the end of the week. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1097 level (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.1136. At the 1.1136 level, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro can be expected today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1070 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth towards the 1.1097 and 1.1136 levels can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.1070 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1034 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point movement back from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1097 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal. A drop towards the 1.1070 and 1.1034 levels can be expected.
Chart Description:
- Thin green line: The entry price for buying the asset.
- Thick green line: The anticipated price for setting a Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: The entry price for selling the asset.
- Thick red line: The anticipated price for setting a Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.
Important:
Beginner traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
