Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3060 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. After a short period, another test of 1.3060 took place, and at that point, the MACD was already in the overbought area, allowing Scenario #2 for selling to unfold. However, after the pair fell by ten pips, the pressure on the pound eased. There are no reports this morning, so GBP/USD buyers have a good chance to continue yesterday's upward trend. The survey results on expected inflation in the UK may help with that. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the realization of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3157 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3187 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3187, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). You can expect a further rise in the pound as a continuation of yesterday's trend, but it will require a strong breakout of the daily high. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3135 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3157 and 1.3187 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the 1.3135 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3114 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Selling the pound is only advisable after a failed attempt to consolidate near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3157 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3135 and 1.3114 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
