Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 141.43 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar in continuation of the recent downtrend. As a result, the pair fell by around 80 pips, but we didn't quite reach the target level. Then, during the pair's rise, a test of the 142.00 level occurred. This coincided with the start of the MACD moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar, resulting in more than 50 pips growth. Yesterday's Federal Reserve decision led to a surge in volatility, but dollar buyers ultimately regained the initiative. In this context, further growth of the pair after the observed correction seems plausible. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 143.11 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 144.34 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 144.34 level, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's growth today can be expected only as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 142.49 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 143.11 and 144.34 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 142.49 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 141.54 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return anytime, as the bearish market for the dollar has not gone away. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.11 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 142.49 and 141.54 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
