Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 143.76 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips, breaking the level of 144.24. At this level, I mentioned in my forecast that I intended to sell the dollar immediately on the rebound, which allowed me to secure another 50 pips of profit from the market. Today, the yen reacted poorly to Japan's weak manufacturing PMI data, which came in worse than economists' forecasts. The relatively good services PMI data did not help salvage the situation. The speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was also interpreted as supporting the purchase of the U.S. dollar against the yen. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.52 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to the level of 145.04 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 145.04, I intend to exit my purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). Growth of the pair today is expected, especially after the speeches from representatives of the BOJ. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price of 144.16 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 144.52 and 145.04 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 144.16 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.62, where I intend to exit my sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment as the bearish market for the dollar remains. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price of 144.52 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 144.16 and 143.62 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
