Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3369 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero level, limiting the pair's upward potential. Therefore, I refrained from entering the market, despite the pound's promising upward prospects. Those who entered long positions managed to secure only about 10 points. Several U.S. economic reports are expected, including data on the Consumer Confidence Index, Home Price Index, and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. However, the most interesting event will be the interview with FOMC member Michelle Bowman, whose dovish comments could pose certain challenges for USD buyers and continue the pound's upward rally. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound once it reaches the entry point around 1.3390 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.3435 level (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3435, I will close my long positions and initiate short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement from the level. A rise in the pound today can be anticipated following weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.3355 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to reach the opposite levels of 1.3390 and 1.3435.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakdown of the 1.3355 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3322 level, where I will close my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point move from the level). Sellers will likely show strength in the case of strong U.S. statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.3390 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected to reach the opposite levels of 1.3355 and 1.3322.
Chart Overview:
- Thin Green Line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always implement stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
