Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3390 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved slightly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. Shortly afterward, another test of this level took place, coinciding with the MACD being in the overbought area, which allowed Scenario No. 2 for selling to materialize. However, a significant correction was unlikely, given that the actions were against the trend. After the pound dropped by 20 pips, demand returned, aided by weak consumer confidence data in the U.S. for September this year, which was much worse than economists' forecasts. Today, once again, there's no UK data during the European trading session, so GBP/USD may continue to rise in the development of the upward trend, which has been ongoing since the 10th of September. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2 to continue strengthening the GBP.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point at 1.3426 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the 1.3471 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 1.3471 level, I intend to exit my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction from the entry point). You can anticipate further growth of the pound in the development of bullish sentiment. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3393 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3426 and 1.3471.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below the 1.3393 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3358 level, where I intend to exit my sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from this level). It's best to sell the pound against the trend only after an unsuccessful consolidation around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3426 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3393 and 1.3358.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
