Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1148 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair moved down by about 20 pips, which was the end. Yesterday's data on the M3 money supply aggregate and the volume of private sector lending were ignored, but the dovish tone of Federal Reserve representatives triggered euro buying and dollar selling in the second half of the day. Today, euro buyers will hope for good data on the Italian Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Spanish CPI, the German unemployment rate, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator. There might be concerns with the latter indicator, so if it declines further, the euro will react with a drop. The speeches of European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone and ECB Board member Joachim Nagel should also not be overlooked. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2 for selling.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1177 area (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1207 level. At the 1.1207 point, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pips movement from the entry point. Consider the euro's growth today in the first half of the day only after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1159 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1177 and 1.1207.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1159 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1130 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if an attempt to rise beyond the daily high is unsuccessful. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1177 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1159 and 1.1130 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders must make market entry decisions cautiously. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, similar to the example I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
