Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The retest of the 1.1159 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point into the market. As a result, the pair moved down by almost 30 points, reaching the target level of 1.1130. Buying at that point on the rebound, according to Scenario #2, resulted in an additional gain of about 20 points. With important statistics ahead, volatility is expected. If the data on the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index indicate rising inflation, the pair will likely fall. Reports on changes in U.S. household spending and income levels will also cause EUR/USD to drop further. Additionally, the U.S. trade balance figures and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are being released, although they are not of great significance. In the case of weak statistics, the euro will rise. For my intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1177 level (the green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 1.1207 level. At the 1.1207 level, I'll exit the market. I will then sell the euro, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement for the euro can be expected today only if the U.S. statistics are very poor. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the 1.1159 price level is touched twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1177 and 1.1207.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1159 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1130 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately enter a long position (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return if the U.S. statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the 1.1177 price level is touched twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1159 and 1.1130.
What is on the Chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
- Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
- Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders must make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it's necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
