Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 143.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair moved about 15 pips, but that was all. The pair then resumed its decline, leading to a test of the 143.56 price level. This coincided with the MACD starting to move downward from the zero mark, allowing for an entry to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 40 pips. Today's data on Japan's monetary base and consumer confidence index didn't significantly affect the pair's dynamics, maintaining market equilibrium with a slight advantage for the U.S. dollar due to the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. I'll focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 144.21 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 145.01 (thicker green line on the chart). At 145.01, I plan to exit the purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pair's rise today can only be expected within a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.70 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 144.21 and 145.01.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after it breaks below the 143.70 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 142.97 level, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pair will remain under pressure within the ongoing bearish market for the dollar. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.21 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 143.70 and 142.97.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
