The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains quite complex and continues to extend. For some time, the wave structure appeared convincing, suggesting the formation of a downward wave set with targets below the 23rd figure. However, in practice, demand for the British pound continues to grow, which invalidates any wave patterns. The market continues to relentlessly build long positions.
At this time, I can only assume a significant complication of the upward trend that started on April 22. If this assumption is correct, we have already seen waves 1 and 2 within wave c. If so, upward wave 3 in c, which began on August 8, is also forming into an extended five-wave structure. Consequently, the pound has the potential to rise up to the 40th figure. This would only be the third wave in the assumed wave c. Following that, a fifth wave may develop, which could also take on a five-wave form...
Reasons to sell the pound are increasing. The GBP/USD pair rose by only 10 points on Wednesday. Such a movement should be considered a typical pullback, with no real impact. The amplitude of movements during the first half of today was very weak, but market activity may increase in the second half. The U.S. ADP report on nonfarm employment was released a few hours ago, and its figures exceeded the market's typically pessimistic expectations. This is already a solid reason to continue increasing demand for the pound.
Additionally, this week it was revealed that the UK economy grew less than expected in the second quarter, and the Federal Reserve does not intend to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in two consecutive meetings. Both pieces of news suggest better conditions for buying the U.S. dollar. However, GBP/USD is still declining very slowly, and I anticipate a more significant decline.
For a long time, the wave pattern pointed to a decline, but the market reacted to the news in favor of the pound. Now that the news supports the dollar, the wave structure seems to contradict expectations of a drop in the pound. Based on this, I expect the pair to fall below the 30th figure, but in that case, the wave structure will need further adjustments. The British pound has faced many challenges in 2024. Either the news obstructs the dollar's rise, or it supports it when the waves turn upward. A lot of confusion. U.S. reports on Friday may shed some light on the current situation. If they are strong, a continued strengthening of the dollar is expected.
General Conclusions:
The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to become more complex. If the upward trend that started on April 22 is ongoing, it will take a long time to complete. I still consider selling the pair to be more attractive, but signals are needed to confirm it. Currently, I believe a new upward wave is forming and continuing. The nearest target for this wave is the 1.3440 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. The pair has reached this level, and a pullback from the peaks has begun, which could also be played.
On a larger wave scale, the wave structure has transformed. We can now anticipate the formation of a complex and extended upward corrective structure. At the moment, it is a three-wave pattern, but it could develop into a five-wave structure, which may take several more months or even longer to complete.
