Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 146.45 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began its downward move from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point into the market. However, as you can see from the chart, the dollar failed to decline, resulting in losses on the trade. U.S. data could help the dollar continue its rise, but for that to happen, the PMI for the services sector and the ISM Services PMI must exceed economists' forecasts. If the data disappoints, pressure on USD/JPY could increase, especially if FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari take a dovish tone. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 147.09 (green line on the chart) with a target of 147.74 (thicker green line on the chart). At 147.74, I will exit long positions and then open short positions, aiming for a 30-35 point downward move from that level. The pair's rise today can only be expected if U.S. data is strong. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.69 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. We can expect a rise to the levels of 147.09 and 147.74.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 146.69 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 145.95 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions, aiming for a 20-25 point rebound upward from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. economic data is weak. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.09 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a downward reversal. We can expect a decline to the levels of 146.69 and 145.95.
Chart Breakdown:
- Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – projected price to set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – projected price to set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to use the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
It is important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is, by nature, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
