Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 146.66 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, we observed a rise of more than 200 pips, as strong U.S. data pushed back plans for further aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which hit the positions of yen buyers hard who were counting on this. The bearish market in the USD/JPY pair has been broken, and we will now see some stabilization, favoring dollar buyers. However, all of this will be relevant until new statements from Japanese politicians regarding the future of interest rates are made. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when reaching the entry point at 148.66 (green line on the chart), with the target for growth to the level of 149.37 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 149.37, I intend to exit my purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can expect the pair to rise as part of a new trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 148.35 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth to the opposing levels of 148.66 and 149.37.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 148.35 is tested (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.54, where I intend to exit my sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price at 148.66 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 148.35 and 147.54.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
