Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the price at 1.3075 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had fallen significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pound's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell. After some time, the pound rose, followed by a test of the price at 1.3096. At the moment the level was updated, the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, which seemed like a good point for entering a buy position on the pound. However, as you can see on the chart, there was no significant upward movement. The lack of statistics from the UK had its impact. In the afternoon, we are expecting data on the balance of trade and the Economic Optimism Index for the U.S. Additionally, speeches by FOMC member Raphael Bostic and FOMC member Susan M. Collins will take place. The statements from these officials will be crucial in determining intraday market volatility. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3106 (green line on the chart), with the target for growth at the level of 1.3137 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3137, I will exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 point movement against the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after a soft tone from the politicians. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3086 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3106 and 1.3137 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.3086 is updated (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3053, where I will exit the sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 point movement against the level). Sellers will be active if the Fed makes cautious comments. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3106 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3086 and 1.3053 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to monitor the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major economic reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
