Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0946 price level occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro, and yesterday's statistics provided little reason to do so. In the second half of the day, apart from the numerous FOMC member speeches, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September will be released. If the PPI rises and exceeds forecasts, the US dollar is likely to strengthen, and the euro will continue its decline, potentially reaching the weekly low again. In the opposite scenario, the euro might recover slightly by the end of the week. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.0952 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0979. At 1.0979, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, with an expected movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today can be expected after the inflation data. Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0927 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal in the market's direction upwards. A rise towards the resistance levels of 1.0952 and 1.0979 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0927 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0901 level, where I plan to exit the market. I will then buy the euro in the opposite direction, with an expected movement of 20-25 points from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. inflation rises sharply. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0952 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal in the market. A decline to the levels of 1.0927 and 1.0901 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or closing positions manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or closing positions manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
