Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen:
The test of the 149.52 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. As a result, I didn't buy and missed the dollar's latest rise. The rebound from 149.86 yielded a mere 15-point profit, and the correction ended at that point. Today's data on Japan's industrial production, which matched economists' forecasts, had no effect on the pair, although the dollar lost some of the gains made during the U.S. session. Given the ongoing bullish trend in the pair, as the USD/JPY moves lower, we are likely to see more attractive buying opportunities, especially as demand for the U.S. dollar is returning amid the Fed's hesitation to cut interest rates quickly. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No.1 and No.2.
Buy signal:
Scenario No.1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 149.66 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 150.17 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.17, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction. You can continue to count on the pair's growth. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise.
Scenario No.2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.22 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 149.66 and 150.17.
Sell signal:
Scenario No.1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking the 149.22 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.73 level, where I plan to exit sales. I will then immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point move. Pressure on the pair will return if there is no significant price movement around the daily high. Important, before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to fall.
Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.66 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 149.22 and 148.73.
Chart details:
- Thin green line: The price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- Thick green line: The estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line: The price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- Thick red line: The estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently flawed strategy for intraday traders.
