Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The 1.3055 price was tested when the MACD indicator had just started to rise from the zero mark. This confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 40 points, reaching the target level of 1.3092. Mixed data from the UK labor market supported the pound, as the decline in the unemployment rate is a positive sign for the economy. It is very likely that the pound will continue to rise in the second half of the day, as the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index is unlikely to counteract strong buyers. However, interviews with FOMC members Mary Daly and Adriana D. Kugler, to which the dollar has recently reacted with strengthening, may impact the market. As for my intraday strategy, I plan to focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3099 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3135 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3135, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound is expected to rise further today. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise before buying.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3065 price, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the target levels of 1.3099 and 1.3135.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price updates the level of 1.3065 (the red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3031, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Sellers will take control if the pair fails to consolidate around the daily high. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline before selling.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3099 price, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the target levels of 1.3065 and 1.3031.
Chart Notes:
- Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
- Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
- Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – It is important to use the overbought and oversold zones for market entry.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally ineffective for intraday traders.
