Analysis of trades and trading advice for the euro
The price test of the 1.0883 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. Even though the euro is rapidly losing ground against the dollar, in the absence of key fundamental data from the U.S. and no speeches from Federal Reserve representatives, I decided not to sell at the lows and, as a result, missed the pair's movement. Today, the EUR/USD decline may continue as the European Central Bank's decision to lower interest rates is unlikely to instill confidence in euro buyers. However, what is more important is what will be stated in the monetary policy report and what plans ECB President Christine Lagarde will outline regarding further rate cuts. The more aggressive the easing policy, the more likely the euro will react with a significant decline. Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy signal
Scenario 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the area around 1.0870 (green line on the chart) with a target of growth to the level of 1.0910. At 1.0910, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise today during the first half of the day is likely only within a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0847 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0870 and 1.0910 can be expected.
Sell signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.0847 (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0810 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today after the ECB decision is released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0870 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0847 and 1.0810 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
