Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 149.67 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, which confirmed a good entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair moved up about 40 pips, reaching the target level of 150.06. Sales from this level on the rebound did not bring the expected profit. Today's data on Japan's Consumer Price Index and Core CPI provided only minor support to the yen, as the figures matched economists' forecasts, allowing the Bank of Japan to act according to its plan for gradual monetary policy tightening. The absence of dollar sellers in the first half of the day may bring buyers back into the market, so it's better to continue focusing on the recent upward trend. I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:
Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 150.06 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 150.65 level (thicker green line on the chart). At 150.65, I plan to exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction. Further growth of the pair can still be anticipated. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.76 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 150.06 and 150.65 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:
Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below the 149.76 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 149.17 level, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. Pressure on the pair will return if activity around the daily high is weak. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.06 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 149.76 and 149.17 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
