Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 149.37 level coincided with the MACD indicator starting to move upward from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 149.81, resulting in a profit of about 40 points. Short positions on the rebound from 149.81 were unsuccessful. The only significant data in the second half of the day is the US Leading Indicators Index. Of more interest is what FOMC member Neel Kashkari, known for his dovish statements and advocacy of economic stimulus, will say. Such statements are likely to put short-term pressure on the dollar. Given the recent strong rise in the pair, a downward correction might be expected as traders take profits. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to focus on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point near 150.12 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.57 (thicker green line on the chart). At 150.57, I will exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30-35 point movement downward). A rise in the pair today can only be expected after hawkish statements from Fed representatives. Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.79 level while the MACD indicator shows oversold conditions. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may prompt an upward reversal. A rise towards the resistance levels of 150.12 and 150.57 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 149.79 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 149.35 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open long positions (targeting a 20-25 point movement upward). Sellers are likely to reassert themselves if the pair fails to consolidate around 150.12. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.12 level while the MACD indicator shows overbought conditions. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline towards the support levels of 149.79 and 149.35 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – the estimated price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – the entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – the estimated price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, ensure that stop-loss orders are in place to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
