Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The levels I mentioned earlier in the day were not tested. Due to the market's ultra-low volatility, which amounted to about 20 points, it was clear that the necessary conditions for entering the market were not met. The second half of the day is packed with events. Attention should first be given to the report on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations. An increase in the consumer sentiment index and a decrease in inflation expectations would benefit the US dollar, but it would be even better if both indicators showed growth, as this would put more significant pressure on the euro. Otherwise, we will remain within the current range. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area around 1.0836 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.0879 level. At the 1.0879 point, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30 to 35 points from the entry point. Anticipating euro growth in the second half of the day is only feasible following weak US data releases. Important: Before initiating a buy position, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 price point when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise towards the support levels of 1.0836 and 1.0879 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0815 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0779 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20 to 25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Selling pressure on the pair will return if the US data is strong. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0836 price point when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the support levels of 1.0815 and 1.0779 can be expected.
Chart Legend:
- Thin Green Line – Entry level for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line – Suggested price to set a take profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line – Entry level for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line – Suggested price to set a take profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is essential to consider overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, there is a risk of quickly losing your entire capital, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, it is essential to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
