On Friday, the British pound reached the target resistance at 1.2994 and pulled back slightly. This morning (as New Zealand observes a national holiday), the price is consolidating around Friday's close. The Marlin oscillator continues its slow climb upward.
The price seems to be gathering strength to break through 1.2994, potentially heading toward the target level of 1.3080, which would allow the oscillator to move into positive territory. This would place the price and oscillator in a more balanced position ahead of the U.S. elections. The price activity near the lower boundary of the price channel exerts significant pressure on it. The ideal range to await the election results is 1.3080-1.3141, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the H4 chart, the price is moving between the balance and MACD indicator lines. Marlin seems to be preparing for an upward reversal from the zero line. If this reversal occurs and the price rises above 1.2994, the target of 1.3080 will open up. This is the main scenario. However, if the price breaks through the price channel support at 1.2918, it will likely continue to the support level at 1.2859, placing the pound in a weaker position than other major currencies when the initial election results are announced.
