Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
No tests of the levels I outlined in the afternoon took place. Due to the extremely low market volatility, which was understandable given the complete lack of U.S. data, there was no interest in actively buying or selling the euro. As a result, we didn't reach the designated levels, and I ended up without trades. Today, in the first half of the day, we only have the leading German Consumer Climate Index; a decline would lead to a drop in the euro. If the data matches economists' forecasts, we'll likely stay within the current range. I'll rely more on executing scenarios #1 and #2 for today's intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching around 1.0820 (green line on the chart) with a target level of 1.0862. I plan to exit the market at 1.0862 and open a short position for a potential 30-35 pip move from the entry point. Growth in the euro during the first half of the day is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0804 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The price is expected to rise to the opposite levels of 1.0820 and 1.0862.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0820 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0766, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (looking for a 20-25 pip move from the level). Selling pressure will return if the pair fails to exceed the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0820 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downwards. The price is expected to fall to the opposite levels of 1.0804 and 1.0766.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
