The gold market is at risk of flood peaks from generation product of a series of overbought signals arising very close to the psychological level of $ 2000 per ounce. Also, the recent increase by the CME the margin required to operate an ounce (55%), makes it likely the occurrence of further decline able to quell investors more clinging and hinders any new long positions. This explains why gold has been under pressure lately despite the large capital flows shelter received after the intervention of the Swiss National Bank, SNB-market EUR / CHF and the large uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis the Eurozone.
His long-term cycle suggests the formation of a peak, where his last movement sets a pronounced parabolic high-risk area. From the perspective of Elliott Wave analysis, the recent movement belongs possibly at the end of the intermediate phase of impulsive advance (wave 3). A confirmation by a weekly close below $ 1600 a collapse could generate up to 28% in early 2012 could form an important ground and generated a great buying opportunity.
Several variables of feeling recently reached extreme levels and is therefore expected to recede. The volume of speculative capital are a concern in the market since the registration of a new record in the metal is exposed to a structural decline. Given the substantial long position has been for the past two years on the market for an ounce, down from this area could lead to serious consequences. So its macroeconomic fundamentals would be temporarily frozen as traders cut benefits as a result of positioning saturated.
This whole scenario occurs in a context of escalating tensions and economic policies leads investors to demand more attractive haven assets. However, the world is running out of places to shelter. Proof of this has been the Swiss Franc intervention by the SNB, in a desperate attempt to exclude from the market the shelter category, Japan Yen still watching her lurking highs not seen since the Second World War and coins belonging to the group of commodities retreat from extreme levels.
