Tuesday's Trade Analysis:
1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways at its local lows. Remember how many times we said the same about the dollar throughout 2024? This means there are no buyers in the market, and sellers are not taking profits in short positions. If they aren't taking profits, it means they anticipate further decline. The descending trendline has been breached, but we warned that this does not guarantee an upward correction. While a correction could start this week due to the macroeconomic backdrop potentially causing issues for the dollar, yesterday's JOLTs report showed fewer job openings in September than expected. However, let's also note that the remaining reports could vary widely. If they exceed forecasts, the dollar might continue its growth even without a correction.
5M Chart of EUR/USD Pair
On Tuesday, several trade signals were formed around the 1.0797-1.0804 area in the 5-minute time frame. However, the movement was sideways, with low volatility. Consequently, it's not an ideal time for intraday trading. As more important reports will be released over the rest of the week, the direction could shift either way.
How to Trade on Wednesday:
The EUR/USD pair could start correcting after a month-long decline in the hourly time frame. There are at least some grounds for a potential rise in the euro. We believe the pair may begin an upward correction, but it is unlikely to be strong without supportive news for the euro. In the medium term, we continue to expect only a decline.
On Wednesday, novice traders can trade from the 1.0797-1.0804 area again. If the pair consolidates below this level, it would offer a good opportunity for new short positions. Currently, staying in long positions is an option.
In the 5-minute time frame, the levels to consider are 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, and 1.1132-1.1140. For Wednesday, GDP reports for Q3 are scheduled for release in Germany, the EU, and the U.S., along with Germany's inflation report and the ADP report in the U.S. As we can see, at least five important reports will be released today, and it's crucial to watch them closely.
Basic Trading System Rules:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
- On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
- If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
- After the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.
What's on the Charts:
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
