Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2920 level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound, resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to lower interest rates was widely expected. However, the central bank's support for the new fiscal policy of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves came as a surprise, easing concerns that the UK economy might lack the stimulus the central bank is seeking through policy easing. This became a reason to buy the pound despite the challenges and ambiguous policies of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump. Today, we only have a speech by BoE MPC member Huw Pill, so there is still potential for further pound growth. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at 1.2982 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3021 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3021, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pips downward movement. The pound's growth today is likely to continue in an upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2959 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.2982 and 1.3021 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking through the 1.2959 level (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2931, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pips upward movement. Selling the pound is possible, but it's better to do so from higher levels. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2982 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2959 and 1.2931 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
