Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0793 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying the euro. However, the anticipated growth never materialized, resulting in a loss. Later, during the American session, the test of 1.0757 occurred when the MACD was far from the zero mark, so I decided not to sell the euro at the end of the week. A second test of 1.0757 shortly after, when the MACD was in the oversold area, seemed like a suitable buying opportunity under Scenario #2, but once again, the euro failed to show growth, resulting in another loss.
Strong U.S. economic data and positive consumer sentiment boosted dollar purchases, leading to a euro sell-off. No significant economic data is scheduled for the first half of today, so the pair will likely continue its decline. For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches 1.0735 (green line on the chart), with the target at 1.0772. At 1.0772, I plan to exit the market and open short positions, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. However, expecting euro growth in the first half of the day seems unlikely, with gains limited to a corrective rise. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0707 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.0735 and 1.0772 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0707 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0670, where I will exit the market and immediately open long positions (expecting a pullback of 20–25 pips). Pressure on the pair may return anytime, but selling from higher levels is best. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0735 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0707 and 1.0670 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
