Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 153.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Today's data on Japan's monetary aggregate and machinery orders, which exceeded economists' forecasts, led to a slight strengthening of the yen, unlikely to result in a shift in the balance of power. It's better to continue betting on strengthening the US dollar, which is currently in high demand among traders. For the intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 153.90 (green line on the chart) with a target of 154.33 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 154.33, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction. The pair will likely rise, but it's best to buy during corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 153.62 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.90 and 154.33 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 153.62 level (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.15, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction. It is unlikely that downward pressure on the pair will return during the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 153.90 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.62 and 153.15 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
