Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 154.40 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test at 154.40 occurred when the MACD was in the oversold area, triggering Scenario #2 for buying. This movement led to the pair rising by more than 50 points during the session. In the second half of the day, there is no significant fundamental data, so as the pair rises, the likelihood of sellers re-entering the market increases, especially those active at the end of last week. The speech by FOMC member Austin D. Goolsbee is likely to be ignored, as it's unlikely to provide new information. For these reasons, trading within the established range remains the better approach. Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches around 155.25 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.69 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.69, I will exit the buy position and then sell the dollar in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 points. Significant growth for the pair is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to move upward.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.79 twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal. Targets are set at 155.25 and 155.69.
Sell Signal
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price updates to 154.79 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be 154.11, where I will exit the sell position and then buy the dollar in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 points. As the dollar rises, the likelihood of renewed pressure on the pair increases. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.25 twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal. Targets are set at 154.79 and 154.11.
What's on the Chart
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thicker Green Line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thicker Red Line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Focus on the overbought and oversold zones when making market entries.
Important Notes for Beginner Traders
Beginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market. It is advisable to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit, particularly if trading large volumes without proper money management.
For successful trading, having a clear and structured trading plan, such as the one provided above, is essential. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.
