The Japanese yen continues its steady intraday ascent, moving the USD/JPY pair closer to the key level of 152.00, amid subdued U.S. dollar price action.
Threats from U.S. President Joe Biden to impose tariffs, combined with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have emerged as key factors driving flows into the safe-haven Far East currency.
However, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's ability to further raise interest rates could limit the yen's potential for gains. Additionally, optimism driven by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah and rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of key macroeconomic data may also cap demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the overnight breakout below the 100- and 200-period simple moving averages (SMA), on the 4-hour chart, favors bearish traders.
Oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain negative momentum. This supports the prospect of further declines in USD/JPY. Consequently, a break below the 200-day SMA, currently near the key level of 152.00, appears likely. Such a move would test the monthly swing low, approximately at 151.20.
On the other hand, the 153.00 level now acts as a key obstacle, followed by the 153.25–153.30 region. Sustained strength beyond this zone could trigger a short-covering rally, potentially pushing USD/JPY toward the round figure of 154.00.
The upward trajectory may extend further, aiming for intermediate resistance at 154.70 and ultimately targeting the psychological level of 155.00.
