Macroeconomic Reports Overview
There are relatively few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only noteworthy reports are retail sales data from the Eurozone and jobless claims in the U.S. Both are considered "secondary" reports, so a strong market reaction is not expected. This week, the market has shown little enthusiasm for trading, gradually continuing to correct both currency pairs after a two-month decline. The euro remains flat, while the pound is experiencing a weak upward correction.
Fundamental Events Overview
From Thursday's fundamental events, the speech by Federal Reserve member Thomas Barkin stands out. However, it's worth noting that Jerome Powell's speech yesterday offered no new information to the market. Thus, it's unlikely that Barkin will surprise the market with any fresh perspective on the Fed's monetary policy. The U.S. central bank is likely waiting for new data on inflation and the labor market before adjusting its stance on monetary policy.
General Conclusions
During the fourth trading day of the week, the euro will likely remain within its horizontal channel, while the pound will maintain its weak upward correction. With minimal macroeconomic and fundamental events on the calendar, volatility is expected to remain low, and movements could be highly erratic.
Key Rules for the Trading System:
- Signal strength is determined by the time it takes for a signal to form (bounce or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more false signals are generated near a level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair may produce numerous false signals or none at all. In such cases, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of consolidation.
- Trades should be opened during the European session through the middle of the American session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.
- On the hourly timeframe, trades based on MACD signals should only be executed during periods of strong volatility and trends confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- If two levels are very close (5–20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
- After a 15–20 pip movement in the correct direction, set a Stop Loss at breakeven.
What's on the Charts:
Support and Resistance Levels: Targets for opening buy or sell orders. These are ideal points for setting Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: Trendlines or channels reflecting the current trend direction and indicating the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line serving as auxiliary indicators and sources of signals.
Key News Events and Reports: Always listed in the economic calendar, these can significantly impact currency pair movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during such events to avoid sharp price reversals.
Every trade cannot be profitable. The key to long-term success in Forex trading lies in developing a clear strategy and effective money management.
