Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 150.37 level in the afternoon occurred as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the dollar. This led to a 30-pip rise, although the pair failed to reach the target level.
Today's data on wage levels and the positive trend in household spending supported the yen. Positive wage levels significantly impact household financial stability. An increase in wages stimulates consumer demand, which, in turn, supports economic growth. In Japan, where the yen is traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, this favorable trend has facilitated the strengthening of the national currency. Improving household finances makes families less dependent on external economic factors, creating a stable foundation for further growth.
Simultaneously, along with rising incomes, household spending has increased. People invest more in goods and services, actively supporting the domestic market. This, combined with recent statements by Japanese policymakers, enables the yen to maintain a leading position against the US dollar.
I will primarily rely on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's trading approach.
Buy Scenarios
Scenario 1:
Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 150.12 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to 150.48 (a thicker green line). At 150.48, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry-level. Given the downward trend, exercise caution with purchases.
Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the 149.83 level is tested twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 150.12 and 150.48 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
Scenario 1:
Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the 149.83 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.46, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 pips from the level. Selling pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day.
Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario 2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 150.12 level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 149.83 and 149.46 can be expected.
Chart Notes
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.
Important Note for Beginner Traders
- Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
- Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
- Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
- A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.
