Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0547 level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying with expectations of further euro growth. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points, reaching the target level of 1.0581.
For the second half of the day, not much of interest is expected. Wholesale inventory levels in the U.S. are traditionally considered an indicator of economic activity. However, many experts now believe this figure has lost its significance. Given stable consumer demand and predictable production dynamics, changes in inventory volumes are unlikely to significantly influence the forex market. Still, the habit of monitoring inventory changes persists, with some traders viewing it as a risk factor. That said, reliance on outdated data is fading, with more attention shifting to current information sources.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 to continue the euro's upward momentum.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0587 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0620. At 1.0620, plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong euro rally is unlikely today, but another push toward the weekly high cannot be ruled out.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0562 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the 1.0587 and 1.0620 levels.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0562 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0537, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point movement in the opposite direction. Selling pressure will likely return if there is no buyer activity near the daily high.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0587 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the 1.0562 and 1.0537 levels.
Chart Notes
- Thin Green Line: The entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick Green Line: The target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: The entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick Red Line: The target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: It is important to consider overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.
Important Advice for Beginner Forex Traders:
- Exercise caution when making market entry decisions.
- Avoid trading before the release of major fundamental reports to prevent getting caught in sharp price fluctuations.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
- Always have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
