Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 150.07 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar to follow the uptrend. As a result, the pair rose by about 40 points but fell short of the 150.55 target level.
Now, this level serves as a key reference for new buyers, potentially enabling the continuation of the bullish market for the dollar in the second half of the day. Interestingly, many other risk assets paired with the dollar managed to recover their losses today, while the yen missed multiple opportunities.
Given the absence of major fundamental statistics in the second half of the day, USD/JPY is likely to continue its upward movement. However, be extremely cautious about buying at highs. For intraday strategies, I will rely primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point near 150.57 (green line on the chart) with a target of 151.05 (thicker green line on the chart). At 151.05, I plan to exit buy trades and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point downward movement from the level. A continued rise in the pair aligns with this morning's trend.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.25 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the 150.57 and 151.05 levels.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:Plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 150.25 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.83, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point upward movement from the level. Renewed selling pressure on the dollar will be possible if buyers show little activity at current levels.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.57 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the 150.25 and 149.83 levels.
Chart Notes
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Consider overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.
Important Advice for Beginner Forex Traders:
- Exercise caution when making market entry decisions.
- Avoid trading before the release of major fundamental reports to prevent getting caught in sharp price fluctuations.
- If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
- Always have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
