Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0550 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which, in my view, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the entry point.
It is unlikely that the euro's decline was solely due to the German inflation data, but the fact remains: the slowdown in price growth in Germany last month coincided with the euro's decline during the first half of the day.
During the U.S. session, there is quite a bit of data to consider. While these numbers may not seem particularly significant, a few key points could influence the market in the short term:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: This is traditionally considered an important measure of business sentiment. If optimism improves, it could signal potential changes in investment activity, strengthening the U.S. dollar.
- Labor Productivity in the Non-Manufacturing Sector: Increased productivity may indicate greater efficiency, which could boost corporate profits and stimulate economic growth, supporting the U.S. dollar.
- Labor Costs: Changes in labor costs could reveal trends in wage inflation and overall cost pressures, influencing central bank monetary policy decisions.
However, small changes in these indicators are unlikely to have a lasting impact on the broader economic picture.
For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Buy the euro today at 1.0539 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0575. At 1.0575, plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A strong rally in the euro is unlikely today, but another push toward the weekly high cannot be ruled out.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0518 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the 1.0539 and 1.0575 levels.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:Sell the euro after it reaches 1.0518 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0490, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will return if there is no buyer activity near the daily high.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0539 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the 1.0518 and 1.0490 levels.
Chart Notes
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.
Important Advice for Beginner Forex Traders:
- Exercise caution when making market entry decisions.
- Avoid trading before major fundamental reports to prevent being caught in sharp price fluctuations.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
- Always have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
