Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 151.33 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from entering the market and missed trading opportunities in the first half of the day.
Market reactions depend not only on the release of data but also on how participants interpret it. It's essential to understand that economic indicators are often just one part of a larger picture. Therefore, U.S. statistics could provoke a reaction, but only if the figures deviate significantly from economists' expectations. Given the formality of the data, substantial market movements are unlikely today. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and changes in U.S. labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector are the primary drivers that might influence market volume and volatility.
For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Buy USD/JPY at the entry point near 151.78 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 152.41 (thicker green line on the chart). At 152.41, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a downward move of 30–35 points. The pair's rise can be expected to continue following the morning trend.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 151.43 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the 151.78 and 152.41 levels.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:Sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 151.43 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 150.82, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20–25 points. Selling pressure will return if buyers show no activity at current levels.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 151.78 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the 151.43 and 150.82 levels.
Chart Notes
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Target price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.
Important Advice for Beginner Forex Traders:
- Exercise caution when making market entry decisions.
- Avoid trading before the release of major fundamental reports to prevent being caught in sharp price fluctuations.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
- Always have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
