Over the past two days, the USD/JPY pair has reached an intermediate resistance level at 152.16 as it moves toward the target of 153.60. However, the situation suggests that the 153.60 target may not be achieved. This is indicated by the Marlin oscillator, which is rising ahead of the market and has approached the boundary of the growth territory.
The Marlin oscillator could interact with the zero line much earlier than the price reaches the target level. A reversal in price and the oscillator could occur at current levels, reflecting the moderate nature of this corrective growth within a strong downtrend (even without Marlin reaching the zero line). Additionally, the Bank of Japan's meeting is scheduled for next week.
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has been moving within a range (marked as a gray zone) for an extended period. After the price reached 152.16, the oscillator sharply turned downward. The oscillator is about to move down not only from the range but also from the positive area.
If the pair consolidates below the MACD Line at 150.07—though this level is still 160 pips away—confirmation of a price reversal into a new wave of decline would come. There is ample time before the BOJ meeting, allowing the price to consolidate above 150.83.
