Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2744 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy the pound and missed a relatively decent upward movement. No other suitable entry points were formed.
The British pound, despite challenges, maintains its position. Despite issues with economic growth rates and the labor market, traders anticipate a rate cut by the Bank of England and no longer view the pound as a highly risky asset. This creates a positive backdrop for the GBP/USD pair, potentially pushing it upward in the short term. However, potential risks related to geopolitical tensions and domestic economic reforms should not be overlooked when considering the pound's potential for growth. Upcoming central bank meetings could have a significant impact on exchange rate dynamics. If the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged due to stable economic data, additional pressure may be applied to the pound. Similarly, if the BoE follows the same path, it could level the balance of power in the market.
Unfortunately, no significant UK economic data is scheduled for release today. However, this does not eliminate buyers' attempts to return to last week's highs. As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2771 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.2805 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2805, I plan to exit the purchases and open sell positions for a reversal, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction. Today, the pound can be expected to continue the upward trend.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2755 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth towards the opposite levels of 1.2771 and 1.2805 can be anticipated.
Sell Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.2755 level (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2725, where I plan to exit sales and open immediate buy positions for a reversal, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. Selling the pound is advisable, but only at higher levels.
Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2771 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2755 and 1.2725 can be expected.
Chart Notes
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.
Important Note for Beginner Traders
- Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
- Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
- If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
- Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
- A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.
