After the Federal Reserve meeting, which was notably neutral, the euro demonstrated a clear reluctance to lose ground, similar to other major markets. Overall, the day unfolded quietly. The lower shadow of the daily candle extended the euro's trading range to between 1.0350 and 1.0458. Since the lower boundary of this range is strengthened by the MACD line, the primary bearish scenario targeting 1.0135 is becoming increasingly challenging.
Today, however, we have the European Central Bank meeting. The market generally expects a 0.25% decrease in the main rates. Before the ECB's announcement, data on employment and GDP for the Eurozone will be released. Unemployment for December is anticipated to remain at November's level of 6.3%, while GDP growth is expected to be only 0.1%, down from 0.4% in Q3. Additionally, German GDP for Q4 may show a decline of 0.1%. Collectively, these events could potentially push the euro below the support level of 1.0350. A price consolidation below this level would open the target of 1.0135.
On the 4-hour chart, there is additional resistance at 1.0433, indicated by the MACD line. Considering both time frames cumulatively, the euro's position appears weaker than it was yesterday. We are awaiting the ECB's decision on monetary policy.
