During yesterday's speech in the House of Representatives, Jerome Powell did not provide any new information, reiterating that there is no immediate need for a rate cut. Additionally, the expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is unlikely to show significant changes, with the overall CPI forecast remaining steady at 2.9% year-over-year.
Stock indices closed mixed, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.38%, which allowed the euro to gain 55 pips. If today's daily candle closes above 1.0350, the EUR/USD pair may follow a potential bullish scenario, targeting 1.0458. Further gains could extend towards the range of 1.0534 to 1.0575.
However, the Marlin oscillator indicates that a downside scenario is still possible, as its signal line is turning downward from the zero level. The U.S. CPI release today will be a key market catalyst, and the initial price reaction could set the tone for the upcoming trend.
A break below Tuesday's low of 1.0292 would place the euro back on a bearish path.
On the four-hour timeframe, the price has tested resistance at the MACD line and is currently pulling back downward. The Marlin oscillator briefly moved into positive territory but is now reversing back down.
If the price consolidates below 1.0350, the Marlin oscillator will likely remain in negative territory, indicating a potential trend reversal.
At this moment, the primary scenario appears bearish; however, traders are awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could either confirm or challenge this outlook.
