By the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro had gained 83 pips, confirming its movement within an alternative scenario. However, this rally is unlikely to be sustained, as it is driven by the same factor that initially triggered it—the initiation of peace talks regarding Ukraine. If the military conflict comes to an end, one side will emerge in a stronger position, and that side is not Europe, but the United States. This suggests that the U.S. dollar has stronger grounds for further strengthening.
Previously, we identified the range of 1.0534 to 1.0575 as a potential reversal zone, where the euro could transition into a new downtrend. If this range is breached, the next potential turning point is at 1.0667, with an additional resistance level at 1.0762. However, regardless of how high the euro climbs, it is expected to eventually drop below parity. For now, the target range of 1.0534 to 1.0575 remains valid, and we anticipate that the price will reach this area.
On the four-hour chart, most of yesterday's market activity occurred above the balance and MACD indicator lines. This morning, the price has consolidated above the 1.0458 level. The Marlin oscillator is exhibiting some volatility, but overall, it continues to trend upward in positive territory.
