clear directional trend. However, this is not a traditional flat market with a well-defined sideways channel but rather a limited price range where liquidity is continuously being removed from both sides. Given that liquidity is being absorbed on both ends, it is difficult to determine an imminent trend direction. At this stage, no distinct patterns are forming beyond liquidity grabs.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was shaken by a major security breach, in which one of the largest crypto exchanges was hacked, leading to $1.46 billion in crypto assets being stolen. According to exchange officials, only one wallet was compromised, while all other accounts remained unaffected, and withdrawals continued as usual. Nonetheless, this is another serious blow to the crypto industry, highlighting the persistent security risks associated with digital assets. Unlike traditional financial systems, cryptocurrencies lack full protection against such attacks, especially when large amounts are stored in centralized locations.
The market reacted with a sharp drop, reinforcing the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Notably, BTC/USD has removed bearish liquidity four times recently, meaning that stop-loss orders above key highs have been triggered.
Overall BTC/USD Outlook on the Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin's uptrend remains intact, as each new higher high (HH) is formed after a higher low (HL). However, the latest HH was not confirmed, leading to what is known as a fake BOS (Break of Structure). This suggests that the market merely collected liquidity from stop-loss orders above the previous high without establishing a new bullish impulse. As a result, a deeper correction or even a trend reversal could be developing.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with liquidity being removed at both the upper and lower boundaries of the $92,100 - $108,000 range. The CHOCH (Change of Character) level, marked on the chart, represents the critical support, below which the uptrend would be broken. Bitcoin has not yet tested this level, meaning that a confirmed downtrend has not officially begun.
Nonetheless, a move toward $92,100 seems increasingly likely in the coming weeks, though further declines are uncertain at this stage. According to Wyckoff methodology, consolidation phases can be interpreted as re-accumulation zones, where market makers accumulate positions before another potential rally. However, if the CHOCH level is breached, trend-following liquidity below this support level would be targeted, leading to a long-term bearish move.
BTC/USD Outlook on the 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is forming some identifiable trading patterns. Recently, a bearish order block (OB) was established, and multiple liquidity sweeps have occurred. These liquidity grabs are marked on the chart.
So far, Bitcoin has not yet revisited the newly formed OB, but if the price returns to this area, it could present a short-selling opportunity. However, it is important to remember that Bitcoin remains within a restricted range, meaning that even after retesting the OB, the subsequent drop may not be particularly strong.
Bitcoin Trading Recommendations (BTC/USD):
Currently, we maintain a bearish outlook for Bitcoin over the next few months. The recent bounce from the lower boundary of the daily range led to a short-term rally, but this movement lacked momentum. On both the 4-hour and daily charts, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase.
A potential short-term upside move within the range is possible, but overall, the market remains more inclined toward a deeper correction.
- The last active trading setup was a bearish order block (OB), which provided traders with a short-selling opportunity.
- To re-enter the market, we would need either a return to the bearish OB or the formation of new patterns.
Key Terms and Explanations:
- CHOCH (Change of Character) – A structural shift in market direction, signaling a potential trend reversal.
- Liquidity – Stop-loss orders set by traders, often targeted by market makers to build positions.
- FVG (Fair Value Gap) – An area where price moved quickly, indicating an imbalance between buyers and sellers. These gaps tend to be revisited by price before further movement.
- IFVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) – Unlike a regular FVG, this area does not trigger a reaction upon retest and is instead broken impulsively before being tested from the opposite side.
- OB (Order Block) – A key candle where a market maker initiated a large position, usually leading to a trend reversal or continuation after liquidity absorption.
